INTEGRAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT OF A CONGENITAL CLEFT LIP AND PALATE IN THE CONTEXTOF THE RISK FACTORS OF DIFFERENT NATURE

S. G. Sharapov* and A. Sh. Inoyatov

ABSTRACT

Background: It is known that in the Russian Federation 4.5% of children have various congenital malformations and anomalies. The most common congenital malformations of the development include congenital clefts of the upper lip and palate. (ССULaP). The frequency of birth of children with this defect is up to 38% of all developmental defects in children. ССULaP refers to the most common and severe malformations of the maxillofacial area (MA). According to the World Health Organization(WHO), the frequency of birth of patients with crevices in the world is 0.6-1.6 per 1000 newborns. In the group of congenital malformations of human development ССULaP account for between 12 and 30%. Objective: To construct linear mathematical models for the development of congenital clefts of the upper lip and palate, taking into account risk factors of various nature. Methods: The object of the study was 216 children and their mothers. 186 of these children were with congenital malformations of the maxillofacial region from birth to 14 years. 30 healthy children together with their mothers formed the control comparison group. The material was processed using one-dimensional and multi-dimensional statistics using the STATISTICA 10.0 software package. Result: The obtained results formed the basis of the software program “Prediction of development of congenital crevices of the upper lip and palate in pregnant women, taking into account various risk factors” (ССULaP), which made it possible to automate the calculation process. The software product “ССULaP” is implemented in the algorithmic language Visual Basic 6.0. Conclusion: As a result of the study, models and decisive prediction rules for congenital clefts of the upper lip and palate were obtained, as well as the software for predicting the development of congenital clefts of the upper lip and palate of the fetus taking into account various risk factors of different nature (ССULaP) were developed.

Keywords: congenital cleft, lip, palate, mathematics, method, dentistry, prediction, pathology, process.